Keyword Climate models

Dominique Paquin of Ouranos specializes in climate data, modelling & projections. Decision-makers and everyday Canadians need to understand how these highly technical tools can be used to facilitate real change. In this video, Dominique breaks down the different parts of a model and explains how her work can help us understand and prepare for the future.

The Climate Atlas allows you to explore how climate change is likely to impact Canada’s vast and diverse forest ecosystems. Much hotter summers, milder winters, and changes in precipitation will likely lead to more frequent and intense forests fires, new invasive species, and an increase in pest outbreaks. Climate change may also make it possible for trees to thrive in previously inhospitable areas, like north of the current treeline or near the tops of mountains. Understanding the magnitude of these various changes and risks allows forest managers, emergency response coordinators, citizens, politicians, and planners to take meaningful action to mitigate and adapt.

The Climate Atlas allows you to explore how climate change is likely to impact Canada’s agricultural sector. Hotter temperatures and changes in precipitation may introduce new risks, while a longer growing season with more heat accumulation and fewer frost days may have some benefits. Of course none of these changes is projected to happen in isolation: the positive likelihood of a longer growing season co-exists with possibly damaging changes in patterns of seasonal precipitation and very high heat. Understanding the magnitude of these various changes and risks allows farmers, citizens, politicians, and planners to take meaningful action to mitigate and adapt.

Dendroclimatologist Dave Sauchyn studies tree rings to learn about climates of the past and what it means for the future. His research shows that there’s a “new normal” in the Canadian Prairies and that climate change is increasing the risk of extended and severe drought.

Earth has warmed by 1 °C in just over 100 years. Damon Matthews, a climatologist from Concordia University, describes how this change in temperature is both human-caused and unparalleled in geologic history. Taking us through the evidence of our warming climate, Matthews discusses what these changes mean for Canada and suggests that the case for a dramatic policy response is very clear.

Climate and weather are intimately connected. As the climate around us changes, it will have a dramatic impact on the weather. But if we try to understand climate on the basis of how we think about weather, it’s easy to misinterpret the science and underestimate the risks of climate change.

Roy McLaren has a lifetime of farming experience: he’s farmed in southwest Manitoba for over 70 years. He looks at the Climate Atlas maps of climate projections with concern. “That is pretty bad,” he says, looking at maps showing a huge increase in very hot weather. “With that kind of heat,” McLaren muses, “we’d have to change our farming methods. We’d have to adopt new crops.”

The most powerful computers on Earth are used to run climate models. Scientists use these models to understand how Earth’s climate works and to make predictions about how it might change in the future.

Earth’s atmosphere is made up of many different gases, some of which are “greenhouse” gases. They are called that because they effectively act like a greenhouse or a layer of insulation for Earth: they trap heat and warm the planet. For the past couple of hundred years, human activities (such as burning coal to generate electricity and fuelling our vehicles with gas and diesel) have been changing the atmosphere by adding a huge volume of greenhouse gases. This has caused the greenhouse effect to become stronger, and is making the planet warmer.

Earth’s climate has changed many times and many ways. We know a lot about the natural causes and effects of ancient climate change, and this knowledge helps us state with confidence that modern climate change is a product of human activity.